PRESIDENT Barack Obama would have hoped it was all over by now - but, in fact, he and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck heading into election day.
Incumbent Mr Obama held a comfortable lead going into the autumn after a bounce in the polls following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.
But a lacklustre display in the first debate in Denver, Colorado on 3 October saw Mr Romney swing the political pedestal back in his favour.
Mr Obama wrestled back some of the initiative in the other two debates on 16 and 22 October, with the latter in particular exposing Mr Romney's lack of experience in dealing with foreign policy.
However, neither of those debates in New York or Florida were game-changers and polling has remained tight all the way through the last four weeks.
Indeed, according to New York Times polling site fivethirtyeight.com, Mr Obama is set to win the national popular vote by just 50.8% to 48.3%, and there is no euphoric feeling of hope in his campaign as in 2008.
By contrast, though, that same site estimates Mr Obama's chance of winning the Electoral College at more than 90%. So, why the big difference?
Well, as explained previously on this blog, one of the fundamental weaknesses of the Electoral College system is that, over time, it has created safe-blue and safe-red states.
Just as here in the UK, where northern cities will generally vote for Labour and leafy southern suburbs will almost always vote for the Conservatives, most of the USA has already decided where its Electoral College votes are going.
Furthermore, the fact that states are won outright rather than proportionally even means that you can lose the popular vote and still win the presidency - doesn't it, George?
And so, according to the CNN Electoral Map, it seems that Mr Obama can already rely on a total of 237 Electoral College votes.
These will come from: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Washington (12), and the District of Columbia (3).
With 270 votes needed to win, Mr Obama is not far off just counting the states which he knows he has effectively already won - hence his strong showing in the fivethirtyeight forecast.
Nevertheless, the CNN map also shows Mr Romney can guarantee 206 Electoral College votes at this stage as he is expected to carry 24 states without much of a challenge.
These are: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
Effectively, this reduces the election to a battleground of eight so-called 'purple' states whose 95 votes will decide the result.
These swing states are: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).
And here is an overview of these decisive states:
COLORADO (9)
Colorado is a south-western state which followed the lead of New Mexico by turning blue for Mr Obama having elected Bush in 2004. But, while New Mexico is now considered to be in the Obama column, Colorado remains very much in the toss-up category, although latest polling suggests it is likely to favour Mr Obama again despite his poor first debate performance in Denver. Polls close in Colorado at 2am GMT. Prediction: Obama.
FLORIDA (29)
The Sunshine State is a notorious battleground state, infamous for its role in deciding the 2000 election when the US Supreme Court ruled George W Bush had won the state from Al Gore by just 538 votes. The state historically leans slightly to the Republicans and Romney will hope to land an early blow by winning on the Atlantic coast. By contrast, if Florida is too close to call, challenger Mr Romney could be in for a long night. Polls in Florida will close at 1am GMT. Prediction: Romney.
IOWA (6)
Iowa was where it all started for Mr Romney back in January when he launched his campaign for the Republican candidacy. Back then, Mr Romney got a shock as the state at first declared him the winner, before a recount gave the actual victory to rival Rick Santorum. Certainly, Mr Romney will be hoping to avoid a repeat - but this mid-West outpost is a state in which Mr Obama remains favourite. The polls in Iowa close at 3am GMT. Prediction: Obama.
NEVADA (6)
It could almost be all over by the time that the polls close in Nevada at 3am GMT - but, if the contest is still alive, Mr Romney will desperately need to win if Mr Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin. Latest indications suggest again it will be President Obama who adds these six points to his tally. Prediction: Obama.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)
New Hampshire represents a genuine chance for Mr Romney to carve a small slice of red in the Democratic-dominated north east. Mr Romney has a holiday home there and, unlike many of its neighbours, the Granite State has always had a more independent streak. Indeed, some polls have given the Republican challenger real hope. However, most of the recent indications still put these four points into Mr Obama's column - and when you are as close to the magic 270 mark as the incumbent is, even these four points will matter. Polls close in New Hampshire at 1am GMT. Prediction: Obama.
OHIO (18)
A genuine bellwether, Ohio has chosen the eventual presidential winner in every election since 1964, and no Republican has ever become President without winning the Buckeye State. That trend looks set to continue as, if Mr Romney loses in both Virginia and Ohio, his hopes will be just about dashed. Unfortunately, for the Republican challenger, Ohio is another state in which Mr Obama leads, a significance perhaps of the President having bailed out the auto industry on which Ohio is so heavily reliant. The polls close in Ohio at 12.30am GMT. Verdict: Obama.
VIRGINIA (13)
This is a state which should really be in the Romney column - and certainly it would have been the case years ago before it shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanised and politically moderate environment. But, despite the gradual change in demographics, Mr Romney's team will have still been disappointed to have seen Virginia change over the last few weeks from leaning towards their candidate to its current status whereby most polls make Mr Obama favourite for the 13 points. Virginia closes its polls at midnight GMT and an early defeat here would leave Mr Romney desperately needing victory in Ohio. Verdict: Obama.
WISCONSIN (10)
The Badger State remains only just about close enough to be considered a swing state with polls showing a consistent lead for President Obama over the last few weeks. The gap between Mr Obama and Mr Romney narrowed here when the latter announced Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan as his running mate in the early autumn. However, more recent surveys have put the incumbent as much as seven points clear, and Wisconsin can now be fully expected to turn from purple to blue shortly after its polls close at 2am GMT. Verdict: Obama.
Overall prediction: Barack Obama 303 - 235 Mitt Romney
So, there were have it, then: the forecast points towards a victory and a second term in office for Mr Obama.
Indeed, as fivethirtyeight.com blogger Nate Silver explained this week, such is the strength of Mr Obama's performance in the battleground states, Mr Romney will simply have to hope that the polls have been biased against him all along.
That seems unlikely, given their unrelenting consistency over the last few weeks, and it now seems too late for Mr Romney to turn the tide.
The race to the White House, then, is not as tight as the popular vote would have you believe.
Mr Obama has managed to clear the last couple of hurdles without being blown off course - the October employment figures, which actually showed another improvement, and the ferocious Hurricane Sandy.
And so, after a long and sometimes uncertain campaign, Mr Obama can finally begin to plan for four more years.
There is still yet time for him to leave a positive legacy across the pond.
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