Wednesday 4 January 2012

Romney wins narrowest Iowa vote in history*

Iowa caucuses
1 Mitt Romney 30,015 (24.62%)
2 Rick Santorum 30,007 (24.61%)
3 Ron Paul 26,219 (21.51%)
4 Newt Gingrich 16,251 (13.33%)
5 Rick Perry 12,604 (10.34%)
6 Michele Bachmann 6,073 (4.98%)

REPUBLICAN presidential hopeful Mitt Romney leads the race for his party's nomination after an important early win in the Iowa caucuses(*see postscript at the end of this article).

Former Massachusetts governor Mr Romney (24.62%) won by just eight votes from Rick Santorum (24.61%). Ron Paul, on 21.5%, was trailing in third.

Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker, managed only 13.3% but he still finished ahead of Rick Perry (10.3%) and Michele Bachmann (5%).

Front-runner Mr Romney will hope this is the first of many poll wins as he seeks the approval of the Republican party ahead of the National Convention in Tampa, Florida in August.

There, one of the contenders will be confirmed as the candidate who will run against incumbent Democrat President Barack Obama in November.

It should be noted that Iowa is important only because it is first. It is not first because it is particularly important.

The Mid-west state has only a small number of delegates and technically no delegates were elected today anyway, only delegates to county conventions who in turn elect delegates to an Iowa State Convention.

Nevertheless, even a narrow victory comes as welcome news to Mr Romney who will now carry momentum into the next contest on 10 January in New Hampshire, where he already holds a big lead.

If the multi-millionaire businessman wins there, as expected, he would become the first ever Republican candidate to carry both Iowa and New Hampshire in the caucuses and primaries.

And that would give him a huge boost heading into Super Tuesday on 6 March when no fewer than 10 states will vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is perhaps no surprise that Mr Romney has emerged as the front-runner given his ability to appeal to moderates and independents.

However, his success has caused a crisis on the conservative right of the Grand Old Party.

This political nightmare for the right has been exacerbated by their sheer inability to settle on an 'Anyone But Romney' ticket amid wave upon wave of negative campaigning.

Ms Bachmann was the first to sit atop the merry go-round. Backed by the Tea Party movement, her support peaked last July before she was overshadowed by Mr Perry’s entry to the race.

Mr Perry then faded after poor performances in debates, and he was replaced in turn by the pizza magnate Herman Cain.

Mr Cain surged in October, but support soon fell away after he became embroiled in allegations of sexual harassment, leading to his withdrawal at the start of last month.

Next, Mr Gingrich briefly challenged Mr Romney in the polls - but, having been married three times and admitted adultery, the former struggled to compete with Mr Romney's apparently clean-cut image.

And so we finally reach the present situation where Mr Romney's closest rivals are Mr Santorum and Mr Paul. Even for Mr Santorum and Mr Paul, this has been a bumpy ride, though.

Mr Santorum has come under fire from small government exponent Mr Paul for being a big spender. The 76-year-old Mr Paul has had to contend with the revelation that racially-offensive newsletters were published in his name.

Mr Paul claims not to have read them, never mind written them, but it is little wonder that the Republicans are being cast as a bunch of loons by some in the British media.

On that basis, then, you would think that this contest would be rather irrelevant, only choosing who loses the general election to Mr Obama.

Not so. For the Republicans' crisis of confidence is actually borne out of a belief that they can beat Mr Obama whose popularity ratings have been consistently poor.

Mr Obama enjoyed positive approval for the first few months of his presidency as he vowed to clear up the mess left at home and abroad by his predecessor, George W Bush.

But the honeymoon period did not last long and, having been elected with a mandate to change America and provide a fresh start, Mr Obama has disappointed at best, and failed at worst.

Dealt a poor hand by the world economic situation, he has had to deal with high unemployment while his flagship healthcare reforms were watered down at the request of members of his own party.

Subsequently, the Democrats lost control of the House in the mid-term elections, though it could have been worse: they did at least retain control in the Senate.

Abroad, Mr Obama took a risk by involving US forces in another war by bombing Libya, and troops remain in Afghanistan.

Moreover, the increased dropping of drone bombs on Pakistan has caused a breakdown in diplomatic relations there, and his promise to close down Guantanamo Bay has still yet to be fulfilled.

On the positive side, US troops are finally out of Iraq, and the president will also receive credit for the removal in 2011 of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and Osama bin Laden.

The latter resulted in wild celebrations from liberals and conservatives alike, coming as it did just months before 10th anniversary of 9/11.

It definitely represented a high point for the Obama administration so far but will it be enough for him to secure a second term?

Looking at the candidates for the GOP again, Mr Romney - as the most moderate - is probably best placed to go up against Mr Obama in the autumn.

But, if the challenger cannot even guarantee votes from his own fractious party, Mr Obama will not be sitting too nervously just yet - regardless of what his personal ratings currently show.

*POSTSCRIPT (added 19/01/2012)
(See entry at 10.25am on Guardian liveblog for South Carolina primary)
At a news conference on 19 January, the Iowa Republican Party announced that, of the votes that could be counted, Rick Santorum (29,839) actually had 34 more than Mitt Romney (29,805) in the final tally. Ron Paul (26,036) was still in third place.
However, no official winner has yet been renamed for the state because results from eight of the Iowa's 1,774 precincts are missing.

2012 PRIMARY/CAUCUS SCHEDULE
KEY DATES
3 January Iowa (caucus) - no official winner
10 January New Hampshire (primary) - Mitt Romney
21 January South Carolina (primary)
31 January Florida (primary)

4 February Nevada (caucus)
4-11 February Maine (caucus)
7 February Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus)
28 February Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)

3 March Washington (caucus)
6 March: Super Tuesday Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary)
6-10 March Wyoming (caucus)
10 March Kansas (caucus), US Virgin Islands (caucus)
13 March Alabama (primary), Hawaii (caucus), Mississippi (primary)
17 March Missouri (caucus)
20 March Illinois (primary)
24 March Louisiana (primary)

3 April District of Columbia (primary), Maryland (primary), Wisconsin (primary), Texas (primary)
24 April Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)

8 May Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)

5 June California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June Utah (primary)

27-30 August REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION Tampa, Florida
3-6 September DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION Charlotte, North Carolina

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