Thursday 8 June 2017

Election 2017: In the hands of the youth?

GENERAL ELECTION 2017
 Preview - Results - Review


WinnerTurnout (change)18-24 (diff)25-34 (diff)65+ (diff)
1979Thatcher76.0%62.5% (-13.5%)72.4% (-3.6%)77.7% (+1.7%)
1983Thatcher72.7% (-3.3%)63.9% (-8.8%)67.6% (-5.1%)73.1% (+0.4%)
1987Thatcher75.3% (+2.6%)66.6% (-8.7%)74.0% (-1.3%)76.0% (+0.7%)
1992Major77.7% (+2.4%)67.3% (-10.4%)77.3% (-0.4%)79.2% (+1.5%)
1997Blair71.3% (-6.4%)54.1% (-17.2%)62.2% (-9.1%)77.7% (+6.4%)
2001Blair59.4% (-11.9%)40.4% (-19.0%)45.0% (-14.4%)70.1% (+10.7%)
2005Blair61.4% (+2.0%)38.2% (-23.2%)47.7% (-13.7%)74.3% (+12.9%)
2010hung65.1% (+3.7%)51.8% (-13.3%)57.3% (-7.8%)74.7% (+9.6%)
2015Cameron66.4% (+1.3%)43.0% (-23.4%)54.0% (-12.4%)78.0% (+11.6%)
Source (1979-2010), Source (2015)

LABOUR hopes of a spectacular General Election win today will rely on harnessing the votes of the notoriously unreliable younger voting groups.

Jeremy Corbyn's party holds strong leads in both the 18-24 and 25-34 age categories, according to the pollsters.

But, despite a difficult campaign for the Conservatives in which their overall poll lead has been at least halved, Theresa May retains a solid core of support among the far more reliable over-65s.

If ever, then, there was an election for younger voters finally to seize the narrative and determine their own destiny, it has to be this one.

At the most recent General Election in 2015, only 27% of under-25s voted Conservative - and yet David Cameron sneaked an unexpected overall majority.

It does not take long to work out that a big reason for that was because only 43% of under-25s actually voted, compared to approximately 78% of over-65s.

Of course, as a result of earning his majority, Mr Cameron had to honour his vow of holding a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.

And so, just under a year ago, the vast majority of under-25s who actually voted were again left to watch on as the older age groups decided on Brexit.

Almost three-quarters of young voters who visited the polls in the EU referendum opted for remain - but, once again, they found quite simply that there were not enough of them.

Now, of course, this is hardly the fault of the older voters - as the above table shows, their turnout rates have remained consistently high, at or above 70%.

By contrast, though, turnout among under-25s fell from a respectable 67.3% in 1992 to just 38.2% in 2005. There was a slight recovery in 2010 before again less than half of the demographic went to the polls in 2015.

For the next age-group up - those aged between 25 and 34 - the numbers are not much prettier. In 1992, this age group had a turnout of 77.7%, a percentage which was pretty much in line with the overall figure.

But, in the 2001 and 2005 elections, less than half of this age group voted. Again there was a slight recovery in 2010 and this slight increase was largely retained in 2015. However, it means that there are still only just more than half of the eligible voters in this group actually voting.

Oddly enough, this will be the last General Election in which I will personally fall into the 25-34 age-group category - yes, dear reader, I am getting old.

My first reaction to the General Election being called by Mrs May on 18 April was pretty much in line with Brenda from Bristol who aired her total disbelief at the announcement of yet another major political event.

After all, this is the third General Election in just seven years, a period in which there have also been two nationwide referendums - in 2011 and 2016 - and a separate vote in Scotland on independence, in 2014.

Election fatigue had well and truly set in, and - to some extent - that still remains the case now.

I intend to follow the results during the night and I expect I will write up some sort of analysis of the eventual outcome - but do not expect a slurry of posts on here or on my social media. It is just not my style.

Having originally intended to sit this election out altogether, though, I have decided that I will cast a vote today.

For far too long now, the votes of the two youngest age groups have been suppressed by the sort of self-destructive attitude which I had at the start of the campaign.

But, this time, it might just be different - and that suggestion is not just a noise coming from the social media echo chambers.

Reports of much higher turnout among under 25s have been fuelled by actual confirmation in a record increase in registrations before the deadline on 22 May.

The Brexit vote last June was arguably swung by the registrations of previously disenchanted voters deciding to enter a polling booth for the first time in years. Could a similar shock occur in this poll?

Frankly, it still seems unlikely and it would be wise not to get too invested in the hope of a dramatic night.

A straight-forward Conservative majority is still odds-on with the bookmakers - but, if that does not sound to your liking, the only way that will change is by voting.

Conversely, if it does align with your preference, then again the only way of ensuring it happens is by visiting the polling station.

Please note then that this blog post is not acting to persuade its reader into voting one way or another.

However, it does request that you actually use the power of your vote, especially if you fall into one of the youngest two age groups.

Polling stations are open nationwide from 7am until 10pm. 

Election programmes begin on BBC, ITV and Sky at 9.55pm and continue through the night. A joint exit poll, commissioned by the three broadcasters, will be released at 10pm prompt.

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