Thursday 11 February 2016

US election 2016: Year of the outsiders


OUTSIDERS Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders continued their shake-up of American politics after both gained big victories in their respective New Hampshire primary elections.

In the Republican race, Mr Trump took 35.7% of the vote to finish well ahead of his rivals Ohio governor John Kasich (15.8%), Texas senator Ted Cruz (11.7%), and former Florida governor Jeb Bush (11.0%).

Current Florida senator Marco Rubio, of whom so much had been previously expected, performed terribly and his eventual fifth place on 10.6% has indeed left the continuation of his campaign in doubt.

It had all looked so different after the season-opening Iowa caucuses a week ago. There, Mr Rubio had finished third - and, although he did not win, his 23% had put him just one percent behind Mr Trump and just over four points behind winner Mr Cruz.

In other words, Mr Rubio was well in the race. Under the slightest of scrutiny, however, he has totally crumbled.

Perhaps the most seminal moment of the whole campaign so far came in a debate on Saturday in which the fresh-faced Mr Rubio was challenged by another candidate Chris Christie.

Rather than defend himself, though, Mr Rubio instead attacked incumbent President Barack Obama - and then, bizarrely went onto repeat the same line, almost verbatim, twice more in quick succession.

This robotic response was seized upon by Mr Christie as further evidence that Mr Rubio, as a first-term senator, was not yet for the ready for the responsibility that comes with occupying the White House.

And that perception now looks very difficult for him to shake off.

Instead, the focus has now turned back to Mr Trump, a loose cannon - to say the least - having infamously earlier declared he would ban all Muslims from entering the United States.

Rather then, the focus in the Republican camp is on finding a candidate who can reliably stand up to Mr Trump's relentless anti-establishment message.

Could that perhaps be Jeb Bush, son of the 41st President George HW Bush and brother of the 43rd President George W Bush?

Frankly, that seems unlikely. Mr Bush has out-spent all of his contenders by a huge margin - and yet still only came fourth in New Hampshire having been absolutely nowhere in Iowa.

Certainly, it can be said that there is no great clamour for another chapter to be added to the Bush dynasty.

Of course, the same could partly be said about the Clinton dynasty. Hillary Clinton, wife of 42nd President Bill, is standing for the top job for a second time, having been beaten by Mr Obama in 2008.

In New Hampshire, however, she suffered one hell of a bloody nose as Vermont senator Mr Sanders scored a huge win in the Democrat primary.

Self-styled - and self-funded - socialist candidate Mr Sanders took 60.9% of the vote to dwarf Mrs Clinton's 37.9% in what, unlike the Republican contest, is a simple two-horse race.

In fairness, Mrs Clinton herself has admitted she is not connecting with some voters, particularly the young - but the problem for her is that the problem, for many, is herself.

That is actually not an altogether unfair verdict from the electorate when taking into consideration a few key issues.

For a start, Mrs Clinton supported the Defense of Marriage Act and yet now pretends to be an ally of the gay community. Additionally, she voted in favour of the Patriot Act and the Iraq War, both of which were opposed by Mr Sanders.

At the same time, though, Mr Sanders must concede that New Hampshire - well-known for its independent streak - cannot be viewed as typical of the USA as a whole.

Neighbouring his home patch in Vermont, it is also possibly the state with the most favourable demographics for him of all 50 of the states.

So, basically, it could be said that, if Mr Sanders had failed to win in New Hampshire, Mrs Clinton would already have this contest in the bag.

Instead, her 74-year-old opponent most likely now has enough momentum to make it at least to Super Tuesday on 1 March when 11 primary and caucus elections will be held on the Democrat side. On the same day, meanwhile, 14 different states will select their Republican candidate.

By the start of next month then, the race to the White House should start to become a little clearer.

But, for now - in this strangest of electoral cycles - we are largely none the wiser.

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016
Primaries and Caucuses

IOWA01-FebDEMOCRAT Clinton 49.8%, Sanders 49.6%
REPUBLICAN Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3%, Rubio 23.1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE09-FebDEMOCRAT Sanders 60.9%, Clinton 37.9%
REPUBLICAN Trump 35.7%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%
Next: Nevada caucus for Democrats (20 Feb), South Carolina primary for Republicans (20 Feb), Nevada caucus for Republicans (23 Feb), South Carolina primary for Democrats (27 Feb), Super Tuesday (1 Mar)
 

NY TIMES DELEGATE COUNT
Does not include super-delegates
Democrat (2382 to win)
36 Bernie Sanders
32 Hillary Clinton

Republican (1237 to win)
17 Donald Trump
11 Ted Cruz
10 Marco Rubio
5 John Kasich
4 Jeb Bush
3 Ben Carson

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