Friday 8 May 2015

Election 2015: Tories take control as Nationalists sweep Scotland

GENERAL ELECTION 2015 RESULT
CON36.9% (+0.8%)331 (+24)
LAB30.5% (+1.4%)232 (-26)
SNP4.8% (+3.1%)56 (+50)
LD7.8% (-15.1%)8 (-49)
UKIP12.6% (+9.5%)1 (+1)
GRN3.8% (+2.8%)1 (nc)
PC0.6% (nc)3 (nc)
Others3%18 (nc)
CON majority of 12 seats - Turnout 66.1%

DAVID CAMERON returned to Downing Street for a second term after the Conservatives won a sensational, and largely unforeseen, first majority since 1992.

The Tories won 331 of the 650 seats on a devastating night for Labour - and it was also one which just about completely wiped out the Liberal Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, given the outcome, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg both resigned as party leaders - and Nigel Farage joined them after he failed to win a House of Commons seat for UKIP for a seventh time. 

Meanwhile, in Scotland, the Nationalists' revolution - which began last September during the independence referendum - continued unremittingly.

Nicola Stugeon's party took 56 of the 59 seats available to them with some absolutely stunning victories, and so became easily the third biggest party at Westminster.

Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander was beaten by 20-year-old student Mhairi Black, while Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy also lost his seat. In Gordon, former SNP leader Alec Salmond returned to Westminster after a five-year absence.

And, eventually, only Edinburgh South for Labour, Orkney & Shetland for the Lib Dems and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale for the Conservatives escaped the SNP's clutches.

Elsewhere, it was a night of truly historic swings north of the border with Glasgow North East taken on a swing of 39.3%, and Gordon Brown's former seat - Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - also falling on a swing far in excess of 30%.

But the worst thing about this election for Labour was that the defeats were not confined solely to Scotland. In England and Wales too, Labour fared poorly.

Straight away, a sense of shock filled their camp as the exit poll, released at 10pm on BBC, ITV and Sky, showed the Tories were just short of a majority.

It was totally out of line with the stalemate in the polls throughout the campaign - and was dismissed by several commentators in the election studios.

As time went on, though, it became clear the research had actually underestimated Conservative support and Mr Cameron was set for a majority.

Ultimately, Mr Miliband's party made just 10 direct gains from the Tories, and all-but-one of these were rebuffed by the Tories surprisingly taking Labour seats back in response. It was a hideously depressing night for the left.

The biggest of these shocks was in the Leeds suburb of Morley and Outwood where, as dawn broke, the undoubted Portillo moment of the 2015 election took place.

Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, so long the right-hand man of Mr Miliband, was defeated by Andrea Jenkyns. The Tories had another unexpected seat on the board.

By then, though, the result only simply served to cap a huge Labour failure which had already become apparent much earlier in the night.

Nuneaton was on Labour's target list and North Warwickshire was the closest Tory-Labour marginal of all. They both again returned a Conservative MP.

Remarkably then, Mr Cameron became the first Prime Minister since Margaret Thatcher in 1983 to increase his party's representation following a period of governance.

The same cannot be said for junior coalition partners, the shattered Lib Dems, who lost 49 of their 57 seats after totally collapsing to the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP.

Of course, Mr Clegg's decision to form a coalition with the Conservatives in 2010 can still be considered an eminently sensible and responsible one, given the arithmetic at the time.

But his party's failure thereafter to adhere to high-profile promises on tuition fees and VAT cost them dearly - and a moribund, identity-less campaign was always going to leave a ragtag bunch facing oblivion.

Mr Clegg himself held onto his seat in Sheffield Hallam, after rumours he would not, but other high-profile figures such as Danny Alexander, Vince Cable, Simon Hughes, and Charles Kennedy all lost out.

In fact, their final representation of just eight MPs is the lowest return by a Liberal party since the 1956 - and it will be a long road back to respectability, if indeed it ever happens at all.

For now, though, a country effectively divided in three parts can only watch on as Mr Cameron sets the agenda.

The reshuffle so far has been nothing of the sort. George Osborne, Theresa May and Philip Hammond all kept their positions of Chancellor, Home Secretary, and Foreign Secretary respectively - and Mr Hammond, in particular, has an interesting few months ahead.

With a relatively small majority, Tory backbenchers will ensure the promised referendum on Europe happens sooner rather than later - and any stalling would spell trouble for Mr Cameron.

Remember, the last Conservative Prime Minister to win a majority, John Major, saw his premiership dominated and ruined by rebellions over Europe and the Maastricht Treaty. Remember too, Mr Major had a majority of 21, nine more than Mr Cameron.

But, while it may not all be plain sailing for the Prime Minister, his remarkable win has now given him clear blue water. Will the good ship Great Britain sink or sail?

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