Friday 30 August 2013

Cameron urged to step back on Syria


WAR drums are being beaten again as the Syria crisis gradually reaches its international tipping point - but any action will almost certainly not involve British forces.

Prime Minister David Cameron cut short his holiday in Cornwall and recalled Parliament to raise a motion supporting the principle of yet more military intervention in the Middle East.

But, embarrassingly for Mr Cameron, the vote in the House of Commons was surprisingly lost last night by 285 to 272 as MPs from all sides used their conscience and listened to the public.

For better or worse, and probably for better, the shadow of the Iraq war still looms large - and, as a Yougov poll demonstrated this week, there is little support in the country for another bombing campaign.

Indeed, 50% of respondents said they would oppose a missile attack while 25% supported the idea. Even Conservative voters were against the strikes by 45% to 33%.

Now, undoubtedly, there are some absolutely horrible things happening in Syria at the moment. You only have to see the news headlines and the television pictures of the people dying and suffering to work that out.

President Bashar al-Assad also appears to be a tyrant in trouble, willing to do anything to stay in power - and so it hardly takes a huge leap of logic to consider he would use chemical weapons on his opponents.

Importantly, though, from a British perspective, the actual situation on the ground in Syria remains as clear as mud. Was it definitely Assad who used the chemical weapons or was it the rebels using it to raise stakes and effectively invite Western intervention?

For his part, even Mr Cameron admitted in the debate before the division that there was no "one smoking piece of intelligence" which made it 100% certain the Assad regime was behind the atrocity.

At least this represented a more honest presentation than the one delivered by Tony Blair a decade ago about Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction.

Nevertheless, it was only the result of an intervention by Labour leader Ed Miliband which prevented Mr Cameron from ordering immediate military strikes.

The Prime Minister was also forced to back down and perform perhaps his biggest U-turn yet after deep reservations about rushing a decision were also raised by his own backbenchers.

In fact, with about 30 Labour MPs absent, it was then those very same backbenchers who caused him to be defeated last night.

Notably, the BBC political correspondent Iain Watson had mentioned earlier on Twitter: "Senior conservatives saying to me that [the] chief whip misread the mood of the party on Syria".

And so it came to pass. Mr Cameron, while obviously disappointed, was left in no position other than to respect the wishes of Parliament.

Thus, the vote has become a momentous, historical, shift in power away from the executive to the legislature.

Of course, theoretically, Prime Ministers do not need the support of the Commons to go to war. Realistically, from now on though, any future PM would need to consult Parliament for approval.

It is difficult to see that happening any time soon - as while, doubtless, the MPs who voted against intervening last night did so with a heavy conscience, it has been decided that British forces have been in enough conflict recently.

That will not necessarily stop the United States, of course - although Assad's long-time ally Russia seems sure to have something to say about any use of force.

Already, both ex-Cold War adversaries have sent warships to the Mediterranean while holding discussions with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council.

But, increasingly, it looks as if no resolution will come from the Security Council unless Russia and China abstain as they did for Libya, rather than use their veto.

If the vetoes were used on this occasion, and the USA (and other Western powers such as France) still launched missiles amid a civil war in Syria, it would surely only further worsen the situation there.

Bombs to stop bombs has rarely been the right answer in recent times.

And so, while it is a pipe dream at the moment, my final wishes on this posting must be simply to hope Syria - and indeed the wider Middle East - will eventually find peace.

It has to happen someday.

WHEN PARLIAMENT HITS BACK
Full list of 285 MPs who voted against the principle of military action in Syria
Conservative (30) David Amess, Steve Baker, Richard Bacon, John Baron, Andrew Bingham, Crispin Blunt, Fiona Bruce, Tracey Crouch, David TC Davies, Philip Davies, David Davis, Nick de Bois, Richard Drax, Gordon Henderson, Philip Hollobone, Adam Holloway, Dr Phillip Lee, Dr Julian Lewis, Tim Loughton, Jason McCartney, Nigel Mills, Anne Marie Morris, Andrew Percy, Sir Richard Shepherd, Sir Peter Tapsell, Andrew Turner, Martin Vickers, Charles Walker, Chris White, Dr Sarah Wollaston 
Labour (224) Diane Abbott, Debbie Abrahams, Bob Ainsworth, Douglas Alexander, Heidi Alexander, Rushanara Ali, Graham Allen, David Anderson, Jonathan Ashworth, Adrian Bailey, William Bain, Ed Balls, Gordon Banks, Kevin Barron, Hugh Bayley, Margaret Beckett, Anne Begg, Hilary Benn, Joe Benton, Luciana Berger, Clive Betts, Gordon Birtwistle, Tom Blenkinsop, David Blunkett, Kevin Brennan, Lyn Brown, Nicholas Brown, Russell Brown, Chris Bryant, Karen Buck, Andy Burnham, Liam Byrne, Alan Campbell, Ronnie Campbell, Martin Caton, Jenny Chapman, Katy Clark, Tom Clarke, Vernon Coaker, Ann Coffey, Yvette Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Mary Creagh, Stella Creasy, Jon Cruddas, Alex Cunningham, Jim Cunningham, Tony Cunningham, Margaret Curran, Simon Danczuk, Alistair Darling, Wayne David, Gloria De Piero, John Denham, Jim Dobbin, Frank Dobson, Thomas Docherty, Frank Doran, Stephen Doughty, Jim Dowd, Gemma Doyle, Jack Dromey, Michael Dugher, Angela Eagle, Maria Eagle, Clive Efford, Julie Elliott, Louise Ellman, Natascha Engel, Bill Esterson, Chris Evans, Paul Farrelly, Frank Field, Jim Fitzpatrick, Robert Flello, Caroline Flint, Paul Flynn, Hywel Francis, Mike Gapes, Barry Gardiner, Sheila Gilmore, Pat Glass, Mary Glindon, Roger Godsiff, Paul Goggins, Helen Goodman, Tom Greatrex, Kate Green, Nia Griffith, Andrew Gwynne, David Hamilton, Fabian Hamilton, Harriet Harman, Tom Harris, Dai Havard, John Healey, Mark Hendrick, Stephen Hepburn, Meg Hillier, Margaret Hodge, Kate Hoey, Jim Hood, Kelvin Hopkins, George Howarth, Tristram Hunt, Huw Irranca-Davies, Glenda Jackson, Sian James, Cathy Jamieson, Dan Jarvis, Alan Johnson, Graham Jones, Helen Jones, Kevan Jones, Susan Elan Jones, Tessa Jowell, Eric Joyce, Gerald Kaufman, Liz Kendall, Sadiq Khan, David Lammy, Ian Lavery, Mark Lazarowicz, Chris Leslie, Emma Lewell-Buck, Ivan Lewis, Ian Lucas, Fiona Mactaggart, Khalid Mahmood, Shabana Mahmood, Seema Malhotra, John Mann, Gordon Marsden, Steve McCabe, Michael McCann, Kerry McCarthy, Gregg McClymont, Andy McDonald, John McDonnell, Pat McFadden, Alison McGovern, Jim McGovern, Anne McGuire, Ann McKechin, Iain McKenzie, Catherine McKinnell, Michael Meacher, Alan Meale, Edward Miliband, Andrew Miller, Madeleine Moon, Jessica Morden, Graeme Morrice, Grahame M. Morris, George Mudie, Jim Murphy, Paul Murphy, Ian Murray, Lisa Nandy, Pamela Nash, Fiona O'Donnell, Chi Onwurah, Sandra Osborne, Albert Owen, Teresa Pearce, Toby Perkins, Bridget Phillipson, Stephen Pound, Lucy Powell, Nick Raynsford, Jamie Reed, Steve Reed, Rachel Reeves, Jonathan Reynolds, Linda Riordan, John Robertson, Geoffrey Robinson, Steve Rotheram, Frank Roy, Lindsay Roy, Chris Ruane, Joan Ruddock, Anas Sarwar, Andy Sawford, Alison Seabeck, Virenda Sharman, Barry Sheerman, Jim Sheridan, Gavin Shuker, Dennis Skinner, Andy Slaughter, Andrew Smith, Nick Smith, Owen Smith, Jack Straw, Graham Stringer, Gisela Stuart, Gerry Sutcliffe, Mark Tami, Gareth Thomas, Emily Thornberry, Stephen Timms, Jon Trickett, Derek Twigg, Stephen Twigg, Chuka Umunna, Keith Vaz, Valerie Vaz, Joan Walley, Tom Watson, Dave Watts, Dr Alan Whitehead, Chris Williamson, Phil Wilson, David Winnick, Rosie Winteron, Mike Wood, David Wright, Iain Wright
Liberal Democrats (9) Paul Burstow, Mike Crockart, Andrew George, Mike Hancock, Julian Huppert, Dan Rogerson, Andrew Stunell, Ian Swales, Sarah Teather, Roger Williams
Scottish & Welsh Nationalists (9) Jonathan Edwards, Stewart Hosie, Elfyn Llwyd, Angus MacNeil, Angus Robertson, Mike Weir, Dr Eilidh Whiteford, Hywel Williams, Pete Wishart
Various Northern Irish MPs (7) Gregory Campbell, Nigel Dodds, Jeffrey Donaldson, Brian Donohoe, Mark Durkan, Lady Hermon, Naomi Long, Alasdair McDonnell, Margaret Ritchie, Jim Shannon, Sammy Wilson
Others (2) George Galloway, Caroline Lucas

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