Wednesday 20 March 2013

Budget 2013: Osborne still yet to get Britain going

CHANCELLOR George Osborne conceded growth in the British economy will be just 0.6% this year in his fourth Budget speech to the House of Commons today.

In a rowdy chamber, Mr Osborne said: "I'm going to level with people about the difficult decisions we still face. It is taking longer than anyone hoped."

That indeed it is, with anticipated debt levels expected still to be rising as the country heads to the next general election in 2015.

Nevertheless, chinks of light have emerged from this Budget for both individuals and businesses due to several measures being brought in.

The personal tax allowance will increase to £10,000 from the start of the next tax year, one year earlier than planned in the coalition agreement.

That move, in particular, will please the Liberal Democrats who promised as much in their manifesto before the last election.

Meanwhile, for motorists, the planned September fuel duty rise has been cancelled altogether.

For drinkers, too, the beer duty escalator - which previously increased the cost of a pint 3p above inflation - has been scrapped.

Indeed, Mr Osborne went one further on this issue, cutting beer duty by 1p from Sunday night. Other alcohol levies remain as previously announced but this was the best news for the drinks industry for a long time.

The Campaign for Real Ale was certainly pleased. Chief executive Mike Benner said: "This is a momentous day for Britain's beer drinkers, who will tonight be raising a glass to the Chancellor for axing this damaging tax escalator and helping keep pub-going affordable for hard-pressed consumers."

But it was not just the publicans and brewers who will benefit from this Budget.

The Chancellor announced a further corporation tax cut to 20%, and small businesses will be hugely helped by a £2,000 cut in the bill from employers' National Insurance contributions.

Meanwhile, the housing industry will be hugely encouraged by Government move to offer "mortgage guarantees" totalling £130bn.

In the scheme, prospective buyers would contribute 5% of the value of the property and the Government will guarantee another 15%. This, in effect, will mean people can afford a bigger mortgage with a small deposit.

There was absolutely nothing, however, in Mr Osborne's 53-minute speech to get the banks to lend more.

And the aforementioned lack of growth and increased levels of debt left Labour leader Ed Miliband with an easy line of attack - that nothing had changed since the coalition had come to power.

"Three years on, what does he say? Exactly what he said three years ago" was Mr Miliband's opening gambit. 
 
He added: "We still need four more years of pain, tax rises and spending cuts. In other words, after all the misery, all the harsh medicine, all the suffering by the British people, three years, no progress, deal broken."

The Leader of the Opposition also reminded the public of the cut in the highest rate of income tax from 50% to 45%, speculating in pantomime fashion just how many of the Cabinet would benefit.

Earlier at Prime Minister Questions, though, David Cameron had correctly stated that the rate is still higher than it was at any time during 13 years of Labour government.

And, one of the biggest problems with the current Labour set-up is their refusal to set out their own alternative detailed plan for the economy. 

Consequently, Mr Miliband was left taking pot-shots about Mr Osborne being roundly booed at the Paralympic Games last summer.

But, while the Chancellor may be considered a bit of a figure of fun after last year's disastrous omnishambles Budget, he made sure to make no such mistake this time around.

Indeed, the Conservatives could get a short-term boost from today's announcements on fuel duty, the removal of the beer escalator, and help for house-buyers. It was certainly all good politics.

However, Mr Osborne is still yet to find the answer to Britain's lack of growth - and the feeling is that today's measures, though welcome, are not fundamental enough to change the overall picture.

More worrying for the Chancellor himself is that time is beginning to run out to get Britain moving. He will need no reminder that there are now just over two years until the next election.


2013 BUDGET DETAILS
Growth forecasts/Fiscal policy
*Growth will be just 0.6% in 2013. It is expected to be 1.8% in 2014, 2.3% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016, and 2.8% in 2017.
*Debt will be 75.9% of GDP in 2013, 79.2% in 2014, 82.6% in 2015, 85.1% in 2016, 85.6% in 2017, eventually starting to fall in 84.8% in 2018.
*Deficit will fall from 7.4% of GDP in 2013, and 6.8% in 2014.
*Borrowing in 2013 will be £114bn, falling to £108bn in 2014, £97bn in 2015, £87bn in 2016, £61bn in 2017, and £42bn in 2018.
*Inflation target remain unchanged at 2%.
*OBR expects 600,000 more jobs in 2013.

Taxation/Benefits
*Personal tax-free allowance to £9,440 for 2013-14, and £10,000 for 2014-15.
*£2,000 cut from employers' National Insurance contributions
*Corporation tax rate will be 21% in 2014, and 20% in 2015. As previously, banks will get no benefit from corporation tax rate due to bank levy being increased to 0.142%.
*New tax relief to encourage private investment in social enterprises.

Levies
*Alcohol: Beer duty escalator scrapped, and beer duty cut by 1p. Other alcohol duties remain unchanged.
*Fuel: Planned September increase cancelled altogether.

Investment
*School and health budgets remain ring-fenced
*Extra £3bn a year for infrastructure from 2015-16
*Help-to-buy scheme providing £3.5bn over three years for shared equity loans worth up to 20% of a new-build home for those looking to move up housing ladder. £130bn of guarantees for low deposit mortgages.
*Govt to seek £11.5bn of current savings in the Spending Review in June
*Public sector pay increases limited to 1% in 2015-16, except for service personnel
*LIBOR banking fines used to help combat stress in ex-military personnel
*Govt accepts Lord Heseltine's proposal of a single competitive fund for local enterprise
*Working families to receive up to £1,200 per child for childcare.
*Help for Equitable Life policy holders who bought annuities before 1992
*Social care costs for the elderly to be capped at £72,000 from 2016

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