France ready to put its trust in Hollande

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FULL RESULT

	Party	Votes	Percentage
Francois Hollande	PS	10,273,582	28.63% - progress to 2nd round on 6 May
Nicolas Sarkozy	UMP	9,753,844	27.18% - progress to 2nd round on 6 May
Marine Le Pen	FN	6,421,773	17.90%
Jean-Luc Melenchon	FDG	3,985,298	11.11%
Francois Bayrou	MoDem	3,275,349	9.13%
Eva Joly	EELV	828,451	2.31%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	DLR	644,086	1.79%
Philippe Poutou	NPA	411,178	1.15%
Nathalie Arthaud	LO	202,562	0.56%
Jacques Cheminade	SP	89,572	0.25%

Turnout 36,585,858 (79.47%)


FRANCOIS HOLLANDE moved a step closer to the French presidency after Nicolas Sarkozy became the first incumbent in the Fifth Republic to lose in the first round of voting.

Mr Sarkozy scored 27.18% to fall narrowly short of his socialist rival Mr Hollande, who polled more than 10 million votes in a high turnout of almost 80%.

Meanwhile, rather worryingly for France, Marine Le Pen of the Front Nationale enjoyed her party's best ever result in terms of votes with over 6.4 million people favouring the far-right candidate.

Thankfully, the levels of support for Messieurs Sarkozy and Hollande meant that a repeat of the disastrous first round in 2002 was avoided.

That was when the political Left in France was so hopelessly divided that Marine's father, Jean-Marie, stunned Europe by making it into the run-off against Jacques Chirac.

A decade on and the left wing is much more united.

In fact, Jean-Luc Melenchon - the defeated hard-left candidate - has urged his supporters to switch to Mr Hollande in the second round on 6 May.

Happily for Mr Hollande, polls suggest that he can indeed be confident of receiving strong backing from the vast majority of Mr Melenchon's first round voters.

And that is certainly good news for him as, added altogether, the amount of people choosing left-wing candidates came to 44%.

Consequently, this would leave Mr Hollande needing to gain just another six percent, most of which will come from the people who opted for centrist Francois Bayrou.

By contrast, Mr Sarkozy is in need of a miracle if he is to avoid becoming the first French president since Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1981 to fail to be re-elected.

Of course, it could have been much worse for this deeply unpopular president and his first round position vis-a-vis Mr Hollande actually makes it look like a close contest.

There is no way, though, that Mr Sarkozy can unite the political Right in the same way as the Left is currently unified. In fact, his name was roundly booed when Ms Le Pen mentioned it in her speech in a jubilant rally at her headquarters in Nanterre, just outside Paris.

Mr Sarkozy is generally seen as a traitor by FN supporters despite him directly engaging with far-right voters during the campaign by highlighting France's increased expulsion of immigrants. 

Frankly, this has been the measure of Mr Sarkozy - it has been desperate stuff, at times.

He even reached a point where he tried to score some cheap points and win some cheap votes with a jibe against the British economy.

But, whereas Mr Sarkozy's austerity programme is not a million miles away from the ideas of David Cameron, Mr Hollande seems to offer a genuine alternative to the UK's coalition government.

For, Mr Hollande has ambitious plans to invest in teachers and other aspects of state infrastructure while imposing a 75% tax on earnings above 1m euros.

The BBC's Robert Peston has his doubts over whether the level of overseas borrowing by France will allow him to do this, and he much expects the status quo to remain.

Certainly, it seems the FN are also hoping that nothing much changes. For, if France continues to struggle in a whirlpool of sovereign debt, then Mr Hollande will probably end up as discredited as Mr Sarkozy currently is.

Already, the FN is looking at making inroads against Mr Sarkozy's UMP party in the general election in June, thus building further on the momentum which it has gained in recent weeks. 

Still, it seems odd to me that a country which was occupied by Nazi forces between 1940 and 1944 is in any way attracted by this political extreme.

Perhaps, though, it is simply just the result of a more even-handed political system than in Britain.

Here, extremist parties on both flanks remain on the margins of political discourse whereas, in France, they are given almost as much exposure as the main contenders.

Incidentally, in the British press, Daily Mail columnist Richard Waghorne unequivocally gave Ms Le Pen his backing, proclaiming: "Despite her flaws, the only responsible vote in France... is one for Marine Le Pen."

But, while Waghorne's idiotic ramblings will sound pretty shocking to most British ears, it is not the first time that the Mail has been a cheerleader for the far-right.

"Hurrah for the Blackshirts" was the headline when the paper came out in support of Oswald Mosley's British Union of Fascists in 1934.

Thankfully, the French press reported this election in a slightly more level-headed manner.

Even the populist tabloid Le Figaro - certainly no fan of Mr Hollande - admitted rather begrudgingly that he now certainly holds the advantage.

However, top marks for inventiveness must go to the left-leaning newspaper Liberation which came up with a punchy six-word headline: "Hollande en tête - Le Pen trouble-fête".

The rhyme translates as "Hollande leads but Le Pen proves a spoilsport" - which just about sums up this election so far.

Back over to you, Messeurs Sarkozy et Hollande. 


FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DEPARTMENT-BY-DEPARTMENT

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP Union pour un Mouvement Populaire)
01 Ain

04 Alpes-de-Haute-Provence

05 Hautes-Alpes

10 Aube

13 Bouches-du-Rhone

2A Corse-de-Sud

2B Haute-Corse

21 Cote-d'Or

25 Doubs

26 Drome

27 Eure

28 Eure-et-Loir

37 Indre-et-Loire

39 Jura

41 Loir-et-Cher

45 Loiret

48 Lozere

49 Maine-et-Loire

50 Manche

51 Marne

52 Haute-Marne

53 Mayenne
55 Meuse
57 Moselle

60 Oise

61 Orne

67 Bas-Rhin

68 Haut-Rhin

69 Rhone

73 Savoie

74 Haute-Savoie

78 Yvelines

83 Var

84 Vaucluse

85 Vendee

88 Vosges

89 Yonne

92 Hauts-de-Seine

976 Mayotte

977 Saint-Barthelemy

987 Polynesie francaise

988 Nouvelle Caledonie

FE Fraincais de l'etranger

Francois Hollande (PS Parti socialiste) Note: GAIN means the area was won by Sarkozy in the first round in 2007.
02 Aisne - GAIN

03 Allier - GAIN

06 Alpes-Maritimes
07 Ardeches - GAIN

08 Ardennes - GAIN

09 Ariege

11 Aude

12 Aveyron - GAIN

14 Calvados - GAIN

15 Cantal - GAIN

16 Charente

17 Charente-Maritime - GAIN

18 Cher - GAIN

19 Correze

22 Cotes-d'Armor

23 Creuse

24 Dordogne

29 Finistere

31 Haute-Garonne

32 Gers

33 Gironde

34 Herault - GAIN

35 Ille-et-Vilaine

36 Indre - GAIN

38 Isere - GAIN

40 Landes

42 Loire - GAIN

43 Haute-Loire - GAIN

44 Loire-Atlantique

46 Lot

47 Lot-et-Garonne - GAIN

54 Meurthe-et-Moselle - GAIN

56 Morbihan - GAIN

58 Nievre

59 Nord - GAIN

62 Pas-de-Calais - GAIN

63 Puy-de-Dom

64 Pyrenees-Atlantiques - GAIN

65 Hautes-Pyrenees

66 Pyrenees-Orientales - GAIN

70 Haute-Saone - GAIN

71 Saone-et-Loire - GAIN

72 Sarthe - GAIN

75 Paris - GAIN

76 Seine-Maritime - GAIN

77 Seine-et-Marne - GAIN

79 Deux-Sevres

80 Somme - GAIN

81 Tarn

82 Tarn-et-Garonne - GAIN

86 Vienne

87 Haute-Vienne

90 Territoire de Belfort - GAIN

91 Essonne - GAIN

93 Seine-Saint-Denis

94 Val-de-Marne - GAIN

95 Val-d'Oise - GAIN

971 Guadeloupe - GAIN

972 Martinique

973 Guyane - GAIN

974 La Reunion

975 Saint-Pierre et Miquelon

978 Saint-Martin - GAIN

986 Wallis et Futuna - GAIN

Marine Le Pen (FN Front national)
30 Gard - NF GAIN