It's all gone wrong for Romney

South Carolina primary
1 Newt Gingrich 243,323 (40.4%)
2 Mitt Romney 167,417 (27.8%)
3 Rick Santorum 102,113 (17%)
4 Ron Paul 78,036 (13%)

THE RACE to be nominated as the Republican candidate for the presidential election in November took yet another twist at the weekend as Newt Gingrich stormed to victory in the South Carolina primary.

Mr Gingrich won 243,323 votes (40.4%) to finish well clear of previous front-runner Mitt Romney who tallied 167,417 votes (27.8%).

Rick Santorum was in third place with 102,113 votes (17%), and Ron Paul trailed in last place with 78,036 votes (13%). Both of the latter two names can now be pretty much discounted even if that has been a dangerous thing to do so far.

It seems safe to do it in these cases, though, as Mr Santorum is desperately short on funds and will not be able to compete for much longer at a national level.

Meanwhile, the call for an isolationist foreign policy from 72-year-old outsider Mr Paul means he will gain little support outside of the small base which he has already built up.

And so, it now looks like a two-horse race with the conservative Right having finally settled on an Anyone But Romney ticket by backing Mr Gingrich.

That had not looked likely previously with a whole raft of conservatives - from Michele Bachmann to Herman Cain via Rick Perry - all doing well in the polls at some point before fading away.

The moderate former Massachusetts governor Mr Romney had benefited most from all of the uncertainty as some Republicans scrambled frantically for a safe pair of hands.

Mr Romney had looked to have made a lightning-fast start in the process to be nominated by becoming the first ever Republican candidate to carry both Iowa and New Hampshire at the start of an election year.

But that all changed in the run up to the South Carolina poll last week.

First, Iowan GOP officials stripped Mr Romney of his victory in the state, declaring instead that it had no official winner because not all the votes from all of the districts could be verified.

Then, later that same day, Mr Perry belatedly brought his shambolic campaign to an end.

It had all started rather brightly for the Texan governor, despite his late entry into the race, but he quickly faltered following an almighty gaffe when he could not name his key policy during one of the debates.

The bad news for Mr Romney was that, in his concession speech, Mr Perry gave his unequivocal backing to Mr Gingrich, pointing conservatives towards a unity candidate.

Subsequently, former House speaker Mr Gingrich surged from 10 points behind Mr Romney in the South Carolina opinion polls to end up with a lead greater than that himself.

Mr Gingrich had also been helped inadvertently by Mr Romney who struggled, just like those before him, under the pressure of suddenly being favourite.

Certainly, when asked in one of the debates if he would release his tax accounts, a nervy and non-committal "probably" was not the response which the query had demanded.

It was an unconvincing display of political naivety as Mr Romney could hardly have hoped to avoid the question after days of speculation.

But, while Mr Romney has suffered a taxing time in recent days, Mr Gingrich has found that his adulterous past has returned to haunt him.

That matter came to a head after ABC News ran an interview with Marianne Gingrich, the second of the candidate's three wives, with whom Mr Gingrich wanted an "open marriage" after a six-year affair.

And what makes it worse, for those with long enough memories, is that they will remember Mr Gingrich was at the forefront of those who condemned President Bill Clinton for his lack of moral leadership

In his endorsement of Mr Gingrich, Mr Perry said: "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?"

But, while Mr Perry is right to warn those who wish to cast the first stone, it is difficult to see Mr Gingrich's incredible hypocrisy playing well across America as a whole.

What does seem likely is that this race will continue for some time yet - and at least until Super Tuesday on 6 March when no fewer than 10 states will make their nominations.

Of course, an elongated campaign only serves to reduce the funds available to the winning Republican candidate for the general election in November.

Already, it has been reported that incumbent Democrat president Barack Obama has an election war-chest of more than $240m.

For now, in political terms at least, he can just kick his feet back and enjoy the show.


2012 PRIMARY/CAUCUS SCHEDULE
KEY DATES
3 January Iowa (caucus) - no official winner

10 January New Hampshire (primary) - Mitt Romney

21 January South Carolina (primary) - Newt Gingrich
31 January Florida (primary) - MR

4 February Nevada (caucus)
4-11 February Maine (caucus)
7 February Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus)
28 February Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)

3 March Washington (caucus)
6 March: Super Tuesday Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary)
6-10 March Wyoming (caucus)
10 March Kansas (caucus), US Virgin Islands (caucus)
13 March Alabama (primary), Hawaii (caucus), Mississippi (primary)
17 March Missouri (caucus)
20 March Illinois (primary)
24 March Louisiana (primary)

3 April District of Columbia (primary), Maryland (primary), Wisconsin (primary), Texas (primary)
24 April Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)

8 May Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)

5 June California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June Utah (primary)

27-30 August REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION Tampa, Florida
3-6 September DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION Charlotte, North Carolina