Saturday 7 May 2011

Election 2011: analysis - UK rejects AV as Lib Dems crumble

2011 ELECTION RESULTS

*Results of the AV referendum, English local councils, mayoral elections and Leicester South by-election
*Results of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Northern Irish Assembly


ANALYSIS

VOTERS overwhelmingly rejected the chance to change Westminster elections to the Alternative Vote system in the first UK-wide referendum since 1975.

The AV option received 31.6% of the votes against 68.3% who opted to keep the status quo, the First Past the Post system. Turnout was approximately 41%.

The referendum result was a further blow to the Liberal Democrats on a day in which their vote collapsed in the English council elections, and in the Scotland and Wales national elections.

However, the Lib Dems were not the only party suffering north of the border as Alec Salmond's Scottish Nationalists swept to an extraordinary majority at Holyrood.

The SNP will take 69 of the 129 seats in the new Parliament after routing Scottish Labour in its heartlands with five gains in Glasgow and five more in the Central belt among many, many others.

And, chastened by the heavy defeat, Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray announced that he will resign this coming Autumn. 

Indeed, it was widely accepted that Mr Gray had run a totally ineffectual, negative campaign and he only just retained his own seat in East Lothian by 151 votes.

By contrast, Mr Salmond was able to announce that the result had given the SNP an historic mandate.

He said: "It is clear from the indications we have had so far that it is likely that the SNP has been bestowed trust by the people in a way that no party ever has before in a Scottish election."

Mr Salmond added that he would use his majority to increase the powers of the Scottish executive and to offer a referendum on full independence, even though this would most likely go the same way as the hopes for AV.

Meanwhile, Mr Gray blamed the collapse in the Lib Dem vote on the reason why the SNP gained so much ground but, while this was a contributory factor, Labour's vote share also fell.

There was better news for Labour in Wales as the party gained four seats to increase its representation in Cardiff to 30 Assembly Members.

However, as that number is exactly half the total membership, it means Labour has fallen once again just short of an overall majority and may need to work out a deal with another party.

The Conservatives also improved their standing in Wales, gaining but they surprisingly lost their Welsh leader Nick Bourne on the Mid and West Wales regional list.

Nevertheless, this was still a good day for Prime Minister David Cameron as, remarkably, the Tories not only held their own in the council elections but actually made some modest gains.

It did not seem to matter to the Conservatives that they were already starting from a high-point in defending their seats from 2007, nor did it matter that Labour had begun to make some advances in the south.

The reason, of course, is because the Lib Dems' vote collapsed so badly that the Tories could afford to give some ground to Labour.

Perhaps the most embarrassing results for the Lib Dems, though, came in their contests against Labour in the north.

The only thing that could really save the day for Nick Clegg was if the Yes campaign could pull off a stunning victory in the AV referendum.

It did not look likely with several polls in the run-up to polling day showing big leads for No2AV campaign and, in fact, avid AV supporter Chris Huhne conceded defeat before the votes were counted.

As it happens, the polls were correct - with this final effort from ICM proving particularly close.

Unsurprisingly, the convincing nature of the victory led immediately to suggestion from the likes of the former Home Secretary Lord John Reid that this was a resounding approval of the FPTP system.

But Lord Reid's assessment is not necessarily correct. How many 'no' voters rejected AV because it is not a proportional system? How many stayed at home because neither option was particularly desirable?

Well, the second of those questions can be partially answered at least by a pretty dreadful turnout which should come as no surprise, though, after a frankly pathetic campaign by both sides.

Of course, those who did not vote in the referendum - and, indeed, those who voted against AV because it was not a PR option - may have a long wait until the next chance to change the system.

The last UK-wide referendum before this one was back in 1975 on Britain's membership of the EEC and another hung parliament would be required to get anywhere near to forcing the issue of electoral reform again.

Such a situation does not look likely to happen again in an election under the retained FPTP system with the Lib Dems as a third-party collapsing in the north to Labour and in the south to the Tories.

But, while the return of two-party politics in England is a distinct possibility, the presence of the SNP in Scotland leaves Labour fighting on two fronts.

The heavy losses there mean that party leader Ed Miliband should not sleep too easily tonight even though his Scottish counterpart took the rap.

And, even in England, Labour's council gains and Leicester South by-election victory were the bare minimum expected of the sole main opposition party to a government cutting costs and services.

Key local election analysts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggested before polling day that Labour should be aiming to gain about 1300 seats to recover the ground which was lost in 2003 and 2007 when the seats were last contested.

In actual fact, Labour only managed 800 gains in the council elections.

Allied to the dreadful collapse in Scotland and it is fairly clear that Mr Miliband is moving into a vital period in his leadership less than a year after being elected.

And so, while Scotland's continuing First Minister Mr Salmond can pour himself a generously large Scotch, the only Westminster leader cracking open the bubbly at these results will be Mr Cameron.

He will have to do it carefully, though, to avoid disturbing his punch-drunk coalition partner Mr Clegg.

All that the Lib Dem leader has to take from these results is an empty glass and the most stinking hangover his party has ever suffered.

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